You are not testing for attrition correctly

It is a Wild West out there when it comes to testing for attrition in field experiments. Researchers use different tests, describe them with different terms, and somehow always find a way to conclude that attrition is not a problem in their case. So I was happy to read Testing Attrition Bias in Field Experiments by Dalia Ghanem, Sarojini Hirshleifer and Karen Ortiz-Becerra (Journal of Human Resources, 2026; ungated version). It turns out I was doing it wrong. Chances are, so are you. ...

September 2026 · 16 min · Jacobus Cilliers

Change from Within

Even if you ARE part of government, evidence-based policy change is hard. It takes strategy, patience, and courage. I have had the privilege of collaborating with researchers at South Africa’s Department of Basic Education (DBE) for over a decade, iteratively experimenting with ways to improve foundational literacy. At a recent Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) panel, my long-time collaborator Nompumelelo (Mpumi) Mohohlwane, the new Director for Reading there, offered insights on how evidence-based change actually happens from inside government. What follows draws on her remarks — along with reflections from Stephen Taylor, who leads the DBE’s Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation unit and this research program. ...

April 2026 · 5 min · Jacobus Cilliers

CSAE 2026: What I Saw in Oxford This Year

This year’s Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) 2026 Conference at the University of Oxford brought together ~200 papers spanning agriculture, health, gender, climate, finance, and more, covering research in 33 African countries. Here is a roundup of what was presented, with one-line summaries and links to the papers. The Big Picture African representation What I love about CSAE is the African representation. I don’t know another economics conference where you can chat with people from across the continent over a single lunch. To measure this, I tried two approaches. First, I used AI to identify each speaker’s country of residence based on their primary affiliation. For global organizations like the World Bank, I assumed headquarters. By this measure, only about a quarter of speakers reside in Africa — though they come from 16 different African countries. The majority still come from the UK, Europe, and the US. ...

March 2026 · 37 min · Jacobus Cilliers